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The Mississauga Real Estate Market in 2017 – a Forecast

February 16, 2017 Leave a comment

Here is our latest video on the Mississauga real estate market. We take a look back at 2016, and a look ahead to 2017. All signs point to continued strength in the market, as the three ‘pillars’ which are driving it – low interest rates, a decent local economy, and ongoing immigration into the Greater Toronto Area, are maintained. Will the ‘wild cards’ of the election of Donald Trump in the U.S.A., and the increased tightening of mortgage approval requirements by regulators in Canada, have an effect? Watch the video to find out.

January numbers are already in the books, and local newspapers are publishing reports of incredible bidding wars on average houses. It looks like we are in for another interesting year.

and here is a transcript of the video:

Hello everybody, it’s Randy Selzer here. Once again, thank you for joining me here on my YouTube channel, and how are you? Hope all is well, welcome back. Today, we’re going to look back a little bit at 2016 and see what happened in the market, and we’re also going to look forward to what to expect in 2017 in the real estate market here in Mississauga and also in the Greater Toronto Area. I think most of you are well aware that the, 2016 was incredible. The numbers have come out from the real estate board, and they’re showing about a 23% increase in average prices year over year, which is just an incredible amount to look at, and that’s a historical amount.

So that’s all great news if you’re a homeowner. If you’re a home buyer, it was very difficult throughout the year, trying to chase these listings when they came out, so many bidding wars, and pretty well every house had multiple offers on it, and condos, too, really picked up, especially in the last half of the year; so, as we look forward to 2017, I see a couple of competing things. I think the fundamentals are still there, which is what I like to talk about, the three pillars which are driving the market, and that is low interest rates, a decent economy in general, as well as immigration into the Greater Toronto Area, so those three things are still in place, and that’s all good news for real estate.

There are a couple of things, the kind of wildcards that are out there. One of them was the election of Donald Trump in the United States, and whether or not he messes around with NAFTA and some of the agreements we have with them could affect Canada, and certainly, the Auto Pact, if that gets canceled, that could have a huge effect on Southern Ontario, so we’re not sure where that’s going to go. We’ll have to just watch very carefully to see as it unfolds. The other thing to keep an eye on is that the Canadian Government has done a number of steps to try to slow the market down, it’s a little bit alarmed, I think, that the prices are so high; so as we talked about in another video, they recently required people to, with high-ratio mortgages, to get approved at a higher rate than what they’re actually getting, sort of as a buffer. In case the rates do increase, they’ll still be okay, and …

Also, just very recently, the CMHC fees were increased, and those are the insurance fees that a high-ratio buyer has to pay when getting a mortgage loan, so those two things have combined to make it considerably tougher, especially for first-time buyers, to get into the market. I think what we’re going to see is continued strength in the market for the first half of the year, and I think as these sort of legislative changes take effect, or they’ve taken effect, but as they kind of sift through the market, you may see some decrease in demand perhaps in the second half of the year, but I don’t have a crystal ball. These are just best guesses that I can come up with for where the market is headed.

For investors, the news, also, has been really good. The rental market has been extremely strong, rents are extremely high, and basically, everything is getting snapped up the minute it comes out; so for a rental, if you’re looking at making an investment and renting it out, specifically condos in Mississauga or wherever, that is, we predict that that’s going to continue, because a lot of people are simply priced out of the market to purchase, so they’re going to continue to rent, and that’s going to provide a nice pool of renters for investors.

Anyway, stick with me, we’re going to continue to do videos throughout the year. Hopefully, we can keep abreast of any of the changes that take place, and I wish you all well. Once again, if you have any comments, please feel free, on YouTube or any of the social media, to make comments, and I hope you get a kick out of these videos as much as I get a kick out of making them. Anyways, have a great day, and we’ll talk to you again soon. Bye.

Toronto Condo Foreign Buyers

April 11, 2016 Leave a comment

One of the hottest topics in real estate circles in Canada these days is the proportion of offshore buyers, and if and how they are inflating prices in local markets. This month, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has released a report which investigates the extent of foreign ownership in the condominium markets of Canada’s major cities. One of the interesting stats to come out of the report is that foreign ownership of condos tends to be higher in newer buildings – those built since 2010 in the cities of Toronto and Vancouver.

CMHC reports that the rate of foreign ownership in the overall Greater Toronto Area (CMA) is less than 2% for condominium projects completed before 1990, but foreign ownership rises to 7% for condos completed since 2010.

For Toronto, foreign ownership of condos is highest in the downtown core of the city, where the numbers approach 10%.  CMHC does note that the methodology used for their study allows for some leeway in the exactness of the numbers.

CMHC_Foreign_Take_2

The foreign ownership totals are higher in Toronto, somewhat surprisingly, than they are in the Vancouver area, where foreign investors count for less than 2% of the projects built before 1990, a number which increases to about 6% for those completed since 2010.

Also interesting to note, there are some fairly large statistical jumps from 2014 to 2015 – for example, in the overall Toronto CMA, foreign ownership of condos in that single year jumped nearly a full 2 percentage points  – from 5.5% to 7.4% – for buildings completed 2010 or later. It’s important to remember, however, that some of these numbers can be skewed by condo construction completions, and when there are a large number of completions in a single year, the foreign ownership numbers will grow correspondingly. The growth in foreign ownership of condos, nevertheless, as shown by these CMHC statistics, is obviously real , and hard to ignore.

CMHC_Foreign_Ownership_chart_detail

So what are we to make of foreign ownership of condos, and how does it affect our local market in the Greater Toronto Area? I think that the numbers are still relatively low, although certainly 10% foreign ownership of newer condos in the downtown core of Toronto will have a effect on the market. Toronto’s growing role as a global city brings added pressures on real estate market pricing, it’s a simple matter of supply and demand. That new offshore investors are most interested in newer projects indicates that attention is being paid to many of  the latest condo project launches, many of which are being marketed globally. It appears that the word is getting out there that Toronto, and its environs, are a good, stable, and safe place to invest. Going forward, I believe this trend will continue.

Directory for Mississauga, Ontario

Point2Homes Interview

January 23, 2016 Leave a comment

I was recently interviewed by Point2Homes, a large internet real estate web portal, about the state of the Mississauga real estate market…. here is an excerpt from the Q&A session:

point2homes-randy-selzer-featured

1. How has the Mississauga real estate market performed last year, and what are your expectations for 2016?

The Mississauga real estate market mirrored the overall Greater Toronto Area(GTA) in 2015. We saw very strong demand throughout the year, with multiple offers and bidding wars being the norm. There was an acute shortage of listings for freehold properties, and with nowhere left to build in the City of Mississauga, detached homes increased by about 9 percent during the year. What’s even more remarkable is that, on average, the average selling price for detached homes was 100% of the asking price – in other words, on average, throughout 2015, buyers were obliged to pay the full asking price for a detached home.

High-rise condos, where there are still many being built, especially in the Square One area of Mississauga, saw price increases of 5 percent overall. This is strictly a reflection of supply and demand, for unlike detached homes, there are many new condo projects coming on stream. Condos performed very well in 2015, in spite of the record number of new projects being completed. The average condo in Mississauga sold at 98% of asking price throughout 2015. Rental rates are also at record highs, something that condo investors can appreciate.

The strength in this long bull market has been built on three pillars: low interest rates, which make higher priced properties affordable; an overall good economy in southern Ontario, where most people have jobs; and immigration, where on average, 100,000 people move to the GTA on an annual basis. As long as these three pillars remain in place, my expectation is that the strength in the market will continue.

For the rest of the interview, check here.

2015 Market Report

January 6, 2016 Leave a comment

Mississauga Real Estate in 2015

 

Here is my latest video on the Mississauga real estate market, providing a summary of what happened in 2015, and what to expect in 2016.

In a nutshell, the market provided a 9.5% gain in prices for “freehold” properties – i.e. detached homes, semi-detached homes, and freehold townhomes. The condominium market, specifically centered around the Square One shopping mall in Mississauga, showed a 6.5% percent increase, which is still a very healthy rise in spite of many new condo completions in the area.

Future Predictions for 2016

We predict a continuation of the strong market in 2016, based on the three underlying principles which have supported the market over the last few years:

1.) continued low interest rates
2.) continued decent economy in southern Ontario
3.) continued strong immigration into the Greater Toronto Area

As long as these three principles, or “pillars” as they are described in the video, remain in place, it is our estimation that the strong real estate market should continue in 2016.

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