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Posts Tagged ‘Toronto Real Estate’

Toronto Condo Foreign Buyers

April 11, 2016 Leave a comment

One of the hottest topics in real estate circles in Canada these days is the proportion of offshore buyers, and if and how they are inflating prices in local markets. This month, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has released a report which investigates the extent of foreign ownership in the condominium markets of Canada’s major cities. One of the interesting stats to come out of the report is that foreign ownership of condos tends to be higher in newer buildings – those built since 2010 in the cities of Toronto and Vancouver.

CMHC reports that the rate of foreign ownership in the overall Greater Toronto Area (CMA) is less than 2% for condominium projects completed before 1990, but foreign ownership rises to 7% for condos completed since 2010.

For Toronto, foreign ownership of condos is highest in the downtown core of the city, where the numbers approach 10%.  CMHC does note that the methodology used for their study allows for some leeway in the exactness of the numbers.

CMHC_Foreign_Take_2

The foreign ownership totals are higher in Toronto, somewhat surprisingly, than they are in the Vancouver area, where foreign investors count for less than 2% of the projects built before 1990, a number which increases to about 6% for those completed since 2010.

Also interesting to note, there are some fairly large statistical jumps from 2014 to 2015 – for example, in the overall Toronto CMA, foreign ownership of condos in that single year jumped nearly a full 2 percentage points  – from 5.5% to 7.4% – for buildings completed 2010 or later. It’s important to remember, however, that some of these numbers can be skewed by condo construction completions, and when there are a large number of completions in a single year, the foreign ownership numbers will grow correspondingly. The growth in foreign ownership of condos, nevertheless, as shown by these CMHC statistics, is obviously real , and hard to ignore.

CMHC_Foreign_Ownership_chart_detail

So what are we to make of foreign ownership of condos, and how does it affect our local market in the Greater Toronto Area? I think that the numbers are still relatively low, although certainly 10% foreign ownership of newer condos in the downtown core of Toronto will have a effect on the market. Toronto’s growing role as a global city brings added pressures on real estate market pricing, it’s a simple matter of supply and demand. That new offshore investors are most interested in newer projects indicates that attention is being paid to many of  the latest condo project launches, many of which are being marketed globally. It appears that the word is getting out there that Toronto, and its environs, are a good, stable, and safe place to invest. Going forward, I believe this trend will continue.

Directory for Mississauga, Ontario

House Prices – Why Most ‘Experts’ Have it Wrong

August 22, 2011 Leave a comment

A steady stream of experts in the mainstream media have been predicting a fall in Canadian real estate prices. How can prices be so high? And how can they keep on rising? Surely we are due for a correction!

Some nationally known authors such as Garth Turner have been preaching doom and gloom for over 10 years now, Turner for so long that he has actually missed the entire bull market….and yet he still gets press attention, even after being dead wrong for so many years..

Most of these so-called experts make a fundamental mistake when examining the Canadian real estate market – they confuse Cause and Effect. The high prices in Toronto and Vancouver, you see, are not the Cause of the market – they are the Effect.

So when they decry high prices in Canada, they are missing the point..they are attacking the Effect of the market, not the Cause – a fundamental mistake.

The causes of the bull market we have enjoyed in Canada for the last 15 years or so are three fold:

1.) low interest rates

As long as interest rates remain low, the market will continue

2.) a decent economy

As long as the Canadian economy remains decent, and there are jobs being created, the market will continue

3.) continued immigration into Canada

Here I am talking about the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), my area of expertise, although the same rule applies for any Canadian cities where there are large numbers of people moving into the area.

As long as government policy facilitates continued immigration into Canada’s large cities, the market in those cities will continue.

If we look at these three Causes – the Causes of the real estate boom in Canada, there is still room for optimism. Our Federal Government is loath to increase interest rates, as it boosts the Canadian dollar too high, killing our manufacturing industry vis a vis the United States. The U.S., with its current set of problems, has indicated that it will retain low rates for at least the next two years, so the outlook for Canada’s rates remains low for the foreseeable future.

As for a decent economy, the Canadian economy actually seems to be improving; everywhere I look these days in my home town of Mississauga, or anywhere in the Greater Toronto Area, there are ‘help wanted’ or ‘now hiring’ signs….so the economy, in spite of some global macro issues, seems to be on the right track.

And finally, unless there is a change in government policy, Canada continues to welcome new immigrants from all across the globe. All these folks (reportedly 100,000 per year moving into the Toronto area) need somewhere to live, and many arrive in Canada with money to buy property. God bless ’em..

So there is my take on the Canadian real estate market. Sure, there are issues of absolute affordability, but we in the GTA have only to look at Vancouver to see that much greater prices are indeed possible, as long as the three causes of the market remain in place. If any of these change – is rates start rising, if the economy goes in the tank, or if immigration dries up – then the market will slow. Until then, the future is bright. Whenever you read a self-proclaimed ‘expert’ in the mainstream media saying that the market will fall because prices are ‘too high’, know that they are mixing up cause and effect; they are addressing the effect of the market, not the cause.

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